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2011 Bounce Back Hitters

Jason Bay: Our top bounce back pick for 2011.

Jason Bay: Our top bounce back pick for 2011.

If you are looking for value in your 2011 fantasy baseball draft, here are some top candidates to choose from.  Injuries hampered these players in 2010 and that often means value.

Look for these guys to be under-valued in your 2011 fantasy baseball draft.

Jason Bay, OF, Mets — Bay got off to a poor start in 2010 with the Mets, but a July concussion really ruined his season.  Bay, who hit 36 homers in 2009 with 119 RBI, hit just 6 homers in 2010.

Jimmy Rollins, SS, Phillies — Jimmy Rollins is in a contract year and he was not healthy in 2009 with several leg injuries.  When speed is your game, as it is with Rollins, a leg injury is devastating.  He ended at .243/8/41/17.  With Polanco locked in the # 2 spot, look for Victorino to hit leadoff.  Rollins will move to protect Howard in the # 5 spot which will increase his RBI totals as he ends the year with  .275/20/85/30.

Kendry Morales, OF, Angels — Morales broke his ankle in a fluke injury while jumping on home plate after a walk-off homer.  He should be ready for Spring Training in March.  Expect Morales to return close to his 2009 numbers of .306/34/108/3.

Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, Red Sox — A series of rib injuries ruined Ellsbury’s 2010 season with only 72 AB’s.  But, a rib injury won’t slow down his blazing speed in 2011.  He may not match his 2009 season, but Ellsbury can hit .280 and steal 50+ bases.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets — Beltran put up massive numbers for New York in ’06 through ’08, but has not been the same since due to a right knee injury.  In September, he made his comeback and hit 5 homers with a .964 OPS.  While his speed numbers have definitely waned at age 33, we expect his homerun power to return.

And a couple who we don’t think will bounce back:

Grady Sizemore, OF, Indians — Sizemore is only 28 so he should be at his peek performance years.  But, knee surgery ended his year in June last year and its unlikely he’ll be able to perform like the all star that he was prior to last year.

Mark DeRosa, OF, Giants — DeRosa was slowed by a wrist injury that began during the ’09 season and then he was shut down again in 2010.  At age 36, we think DeRosa’s best days are past and he may soon be spending more time with his two-time Baseball’s Hottest Wife.

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