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Handicapping The 2010 Home Run Derby

The 2010 Home Run Derby has some familiar faces, but is mostly a new group of hitters. Of the eight 2010 participants, only three have previously appeared in the Derby before. Despite the ESPN advertisements, previous Derby studs like 2009 winner Prince Fielder, 2008 runner up Josh Hamilton, and 2006 winner Ryan Howard will not be participating in tonight’s contest.

Click the link at the end to check out our prediction for the winner of the 2011 Home Run Derby.

So while you might miss out on the marquee MLB sluggers, have no fear. David Ortiz is back for his 4th appearance (1st steroid free) and Miguel Cabrera is back for his second show (sans drinking problem). Matt Holliday is back, too, for a second go-round (first without Mile High inflation).

Clearly the three favorites in the 2010 Derby, Ortiz has the most homers at Angel Stadium – 7 in 35 games. Cabrera has the most in the shortest amount of games – 5 in 16. Holliday didn’t hit a single bomb in five games at Angel Stadium during his crappy stint in Oakland last season.  The other participants to homer in Angel Stadium – Nick Swisher (3 in 38) and Vernon Wells (3 in 36).

So, who’s gonna win this thing?

Current () Bodog odds for tonight’s Home Run Derby, sorted from the favorite to the longshot:

  1. Miguel Cabrera: 2.4 – 1
  2. David Ortiz: 3.5 – 1
  3. Matt Holliday: 3.5 – 1
  4. Corey Hart: 5.5 – 1
  5. Nick Swisher: 6 – 1
  6. Hanley Ramirez: 7.5 – 1
  7. Vernon Wells: 7.5 – 1
  8. Chris Young: 8 – 1

Who we like in 2010: David Ortiz.

Why? The shorter porch in shallow right center (370 feet) as opposed to left center (387) seems to put Ortiz and his dead pull at an advantage over Cabrera or Holliday. Corey Hart may make a run into the second round or back his way into the finals if one of the favorites hits TOO many in the first round and tires out in the second round, but there isn’t enough power in the rest of the field to suggest another darkhorse.

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