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The Best Time To Sell Zack Greinke? NOW.

Zack Greinke fantasy baseballAs of today’s posting, Zack Greinke of the Kansas City Royals is the no. 1 overall player in just about every fantasy baseball league format.

The righty is dominating hitters in 2009 and is the league’s only 6-game winner (still true – Roy Halladay now has 7 wins!). His 0.51 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, and 59 strikeouts in 53 innings have given Greinke owners a nice return on investment for a guy who was typically drafted in the 80’s of most fantasy drafts.

That said, everyone is trying to figure out if Greinke is “for real” in fantasy baseball. Sure, he’s a must start while he’s hot. But how long should Greinke owners keep this guy? Is he the closest comparison this season to what we saw from Cliff Lee, circa 2008?

Below are 5 reasons why you should sell Zach Greinke ASAP.

  1. His trade value will NEVER be higher. In the last 24 hours, CBS Sportsline fantasy baseball players have shipped Greinke in 1-for-1 trades for first round draft picks like Miguel Cabrera and Grady Sizemore.
  2. Many of you can probably trade Greinke right now for multiple players, a good reason to consider selling a player. In a 1-for-2 swap, expect returns like Roy Oswalt and Mark Teixeira, Aubrey Huff and Vernon Wells, or Carlos Beltran and Nick Johnson. Someone willing to trade you 1-for-3? How about a return of Josh Hamilton, Cliff Lee, and Zach Duke.
  3. Greinke is a pleasant weather pitcher. After starting 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA in April 2008, he fell to back to earth by June (7-4 / 3.25). In June and July, he went 3-5 with an ERA over 5.00. In September, he went 3-1 with 4 quality starts and an ERA around 3.00. It seems he can’t take the heat.
  4. He was especially roughed up in 2008 during starts against divisional rivals. Greinke’s 2008 ERA against the White Sox? 7.25 in 4 starts. Minnesota? 5.54 in 2 starts.
  5. You can never count on wins in fantasy baseball – judge your starters on strikeouts, earned runs, and WHIP. Wins are just gravy.
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