Too Early To Sell High On Nelson Cruz?
Had a fantasy baseball question posed to me yesterday by Jamey Stegmaier, via Twitter. If you have a fantasy baseball question about a trade or a player, feel free to contact us via e-mail – webmaster [at] fantasybaseballdugout [dot] com – or follow your favorite fantasy baseball analysts on Twitter (@jonathanbentz and @ballparkbob) and get your question answered in 140 characters.
jameystegmaier Quick question: Sell high on Nelson Cruz or keep him for a 90-30-110-.285 year?
Nelson Cruz is off to a hot start this season, currently batting .278 with 5 homeruns, 8 runs scored, 12 RBI and 1 steal. Cruz also won Pacific Coast League MVP last season when he batted .342 with 37 homers, 99 RBI, 93 runs, and 24 steals in only 103 games.
All of that said, should people look to sell high on Nelson Cruz? I say yes. With exception of his 31-game stint in Texas last season, Cruz has never hit better than .235 at the big league level. He displayed power in the minors, but never hit more than 20 homeruns in 100+ game stints in the minors before his 2008 MVP campaign.
CBS Sports’ season long projection for Cruz seems spot on to me – .257/20/75/63/12 in around 500 at-bats.
He hits in a potent Texas Rangers lineup so there’s no question he is going to see pitches to hit. Cruz will get pitches to hit in the Texas lineup, but if you can sell Cruz for a player you know can produce, avoid the risk. I don’t think any fantasy baseball expert will advise you to NOT sell high when you can. In the last 48 hours, I’ve seen 1-for-1 trades for Cruz where he has been dealt for Tim Lincecum, Mariano Rivera, Francisco Rodriguez, and John Lackey. If you can get a top pitcher like Lincecum for Cruz, then you have to pull the trigger.
Fantasy baseball owners should always be looking to sell high. In the case of Nelson Cruz, there might not be a better time to try and sell than now.